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Quarterly Outlook Series
Quarterly insights from our portfolio managers.
Markets held together in 2025 despite policy shocks, inflation pressure, and geopolitical noise, but beneath the surface a K-shaped economy and AI’s growing influence drove sharply diverging outcomes, setting the stage for 2026 to reward rotation, broader leadership, global diversification, and a sharper focus on risks in positioning and the bond market.
Credit markets looked calm in Q4 2025, but rising fiscal deficits and a wave of AI-related bond issuance are reshaping the risk landscape, setting the stage for wider spreads, steeper yield curves, and a potential shift toward more defensive, shorter-duration positioning.
The investment landscape is nearing a critical inflection point as diminished U.S. exceptionalism, sticky inflation, and rising policy uncertainty challenge traditional 60/40 diversification, potentially tilting the opportunity set toward non-U.S. equities, high-quality duration, and alternative strategies to diversify return streams.
Q4 delivered the strongest North American M&A wave in over a decade, expanding the merger arbitrage universe and opening fresh reinvestment opportunities as SPAC dynamics and IPO activity evolved, creating, in our view, a rich landscape where active deal allocations and convertible arbitrage, supported by strong issuance and attractive carry, may play an increasingly important role.
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